Seven Deadly Sins

If there are secrets to placing good sports bets, there also must be pitfalls to avoid. As much as knowing what positive signs to look for and to have a sound betting strategy in place, it is just as important to know what not to do and which mistakes to avoid.

Experts will tell prospective sports gamblers some general rules to live by, and others are willing to sell their “secrets” for a hefty premium, but none of the advice will make a difference if the gambler does not pay attention to it.

Unrealistic Expectations

Perhaps the deadliest sports betting sin is to have unrealistic expectations. Actually this can be wrapped up into several of the deadliest sins, including poor money management and poor judgment, along with mistaken ideas about winning and losing. The basic truth, as any sports betting expert will admit, is that winning as little as 60 percent of the time is about the best for which one can hope.

That is what the numbers say -- even professional sports gamblers win only about 58 percent of the time. Upping your bets or increasing the frequency of placing bets to get beyond that success rate will only lead to losing. Also, seasoned gamblers know that approximately 50 percent of all bets based on a points spread come down to luck, a bad bounce of the ball here, a dropped line drive there, the field goal that sailed “wide right.”

Stupid by Being Smart

As such, some sports gamblers try to cover losses by increasing their wagers, called “chasing” losses. Instead of maintaining a disciplined betting strategy, a player will try to recoup losses quickly, often by playing some “hunch” or “inside tip” that turns out not to be based on facts. Gamblers will bet with their emotions, not logic – “the Tar Heels will never lose to that team from Indiana,” or “the Yankees are due to win, Steinbrenner chewed them out again last night.”

Other gamblers will focus too much on meaningless statistics, for example a team’s record in Sunday games over the past 10 years, even though none of the players or the coach might have been with that team for more than five years. Also the sports book player might hear a rumor that the games is “wired” (rigged), or that a certain player has an injury that is not commonly known. It always is tempting to choose to believe such inside information, but it rarely is true – and if it is true – probably also is known by the book and the odds have been adjusted accordingly.